Is Elon Musk holding up bitcoin? Nope. Its this...
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On to Advised 1.3:
No, today’s trading has nothing to do with Elon. It just appears that way.. whats holding up Bitcoin is this 10-day cycle low (trough). It's averaging to be around 8 days, so let's see what happens. Im in love with the idea Bitcoin fills the 25000 gap on this 80 day cycle trough that is ahead in 2 weeks.
So… heres the deal..
as price approaches the trend line at 39,750, which is above current price on the hourly chart.. If it consolidates around the trend line AND you think the position should be closed…
I think it's time to….
Exit… as this could mean that buyers are pushing too hard based off the higher low on the hourly chart’s 10 day trough. As well as there being a 10 day peak in a day or two, and also its breaking of a 10 day Valid Trendline (VTL). A valid trend line follows rules associated with a price chart's actions, whereby drawing them to connect the peaks of price, will show a critical piece of information when broken by price.. helping the trader to identify major cyclical movements.
In this case, Bitcoin's breaking of a 10-day downward VTL formed by price’s peaks, means that we can look back 8 to 9 days in the past and find a trough of the 20-day cycle. Normally I wouldn't be concerned by this but it's possible that breaking a 10-day VTL from below … when we are expecting a down move at the end of this PROBABLE 80 day cycle… is perhaps too bullish and we should take note …
Alternative to exiting is: a higher stop at 40300, which is more risk.. but still less than 41000..
Look, its up to you. Exit early and rearm the short in the next 2 days, or potentially miss the trade.
The original 38000 entry, and 41000 stop, means the trader has to let their short exit be 30500 to get 2.5 to 1 reward to risk on the trade from 38000. However, exiting at 40300 would MEAN the trade only needs to go to 32000 to be 2.5 to 1.
Some Sad realities:
We should always be trying to reduce risk size to no more than 4 percent of instrument size FOR SWING TRADES
We should not take anything less than 2.5 to 1 on trades.
Best of luck,
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