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Advised #13: A probable 40 week cycle in equities starting
Hi this is Derek Frazier from Mexico, look guys, the market is starting to get choppy as it turns up from a probable 40 week cycle low. This is during a bear market with the implications being confusion and weak trading back and forth. I think the short term cycles are turning up here, and the larger cycles like the 80 week and the 54 month are still hard down.
Cycles long term view
Technically the next week of June will mean that there will be a +4 cycle strength (PLUS FOUR).
All in all this means that some stocks will rally periodically over the next month or so.
I don't think this means a wider market participating, such as value stocks
It probably means a weak rally on safety, energy and some consumer discretionary stocks, some financials and other secure areas of the economy that thrive in these high rates conditions
Thoughts on the recent market strength
What has happened over the last 3 weeks of trading is clear that this is a trough formation of a larger degree. The buying, the meme stock rally, and the follow through of the 10 day cycle is clear to me that there are buyers below. Some stocks that fall through their weekly support are indeed stocks that are in very serious jeopardy of losing 50 to 80% of their value in the resulting 2022 bear market.
I issued a watchlist with both bearish and bullish picks here.
What I'm thinking about
I'm still constructing my first offering to traders that are serious about collaborating through growth, with the aim of being partners inside a fund.
PS: I updated the page for subscribers to my watchlists… you can get on them both… bearish and bullish picks here.
Derek William Frazier