Discover more from Advised Trader
Advised #14: Trading stocks short into 40 week trough
Hey, Derek here.
This is a late issue of Advised as I prepare for the launch of my Accelerator program and setup for all that.
More down moves coming from this week’s equities’ failure as yields go into pseudo-trend, breaking a 35 year valid trend line on historic inflation measures
Short term outlook
In my life, It has to be about how its going, not how it has been.
So here’s what that means for traders:
If the analysis has you waiting for longs but it somehow fails in its setup, then thats a signal to the trader to reverse the bias. That is the great thing about failures like the one that happened on $SPY with the 20 day cycle failure shown by Wednesday thru Friday’s trade.
The market is probably not going thru a 40 week cycle trough beginning.. Rather, it is going through a probable 40 week cycle trough end, in US Equities.
Therefore it is likely that the trend continues hard down, as this would mean the cycle math is minus 2 or 3 for the 20 day cycle that is continuing into late June. Its probable these are not good spots to buy equities for larger players, and if commonality (everything bounces at the same intense moment in time) is to be restored, there must be lower prices. Of course, all this will just amount to a shallow and meager 10 to 15% bounce that will be served as a nice snack for brilliant traders into late year.
To be exact, it's the failure of the: “2nd 20 day cycle of the 4th 80 day cycle of the 1st 40 week cycle of the 2nd 80 week cycle from the 54 month cycle bottom in Mar-June 2020 in US Equities”
Please check my twitter for the spaces as they have a wealth of information for timely trading activities including good topics on current trading: https://twitter.com/CyclicalMarkets
Interest rate news: TYX breaks long term VTL indicating years of upward pressure coming
Let’s dive in. I think bonds are not due to bottom out anytime soon, and that this possible 35 year VTL break is flashing signals of long term bearishness in bonds.
I think the next movement or price will be directly to the 9 year FLD target above on that.
The most recent 80 week peak on interest rates has been blown out by eager bulls from late last year.
There were no sellers to absorb price.
It has catapulted and will probably go directly to its 9 year FLD projection during this 54 month cycle peaking process late next year.
Does that make sense? Huge upside potential for rates
Imminent dollar strength affecting Mexican peso
Peso touched the 54 month FLD this month which caused a big reaction last week in trading.
A forecast of a bullish dollar through next year on a big 80 week trend line break… and the new 54 month cycle on $USDMXN is starting in a bottoming of the range process. I don't go down to a daily chart on forex. But the weekly and monthly are telling me to be prepared for buyers at these lows and that a break of 21.00 signifies that the new 54 month cycle has started and that price will then move to its next destination immediately: the 54 month cycle peak due soon as after.
The dollar is not bullish against the peso the past 5 years, it is flat but it is now nearing the completion of its 54 month cycle bottoming process. There will then be a bullish rally of $USDMXN. Keep in mind also that the next 54 month cycle peak on $USDMXN is the first half of next year.
You got to do the work, the thing that needs to be done that minute.
Helping traders launch their business and get motivated
Stocks that are on the watchlist are in trouble
$MELI breaking 54 month FLD again on decent volume wants to go to pandemic lows
This is a shortened newsletter for the sake of time, as I am rolling out alot.
Thanks for your time.
Be a FREE subscriber Today.