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Advised #2: Traders!...Noone is coming to save you
I think you're starting on the right foot
Weekly Issue #2:
In this weekly issue of Advised, I discuss life: the everchanging, always fooling, machine of pain where you better smile… or else. I do trade reviews of $BABA, $/CL Crude Oil and $BTCUSD showing epic results. I also discuss what it takes to be high performing as we get to the 3rd stage that is needed to become a professional trader. And a call to action so that you can not see the dust settle on your career, whether already pro or semi-pro or noob.
From the Desk of Derek Frazier:
Running a philosophical, financial long form newsletter on your own working from home with an infant son and a toddler son and the wife that actively has 6 million hobbies is rather difficult. Have you ever wondered about the possibilities of taking a personal Walden and disappearing?
Traders and Investors who read this series are welcomed to participate if they would like to be featured, please text me at 803-636-3786, I will incorporate your trader profile into the weekly issue of Advised. I want to see some questions to answer. You have to particpate, this is not for me, its for you. BTW, I sure hope you found my last email and podcast entertaining and informative.
Let's dive in to this issue’s theme:
“how to be a top performer at trading and investing for the rest of your life by learning how to trade using cycles"
Not alot of Advised readers make it to where they want to go
It's impossible to ascertain the skills to be a top performer in our line of work unless you've lived the life in Chicago or Wall st… or have big friends and/or wallets. You see some of them on the internet and you quickly think “yeah, I could do this” LOL.
…Nothing could be farther from the truth. You will not be able to do it.
For my readers with big corporate teams and resources… If you lose your space on your team, then you are in trouble if you haven't found a way to sidestep disaster by trading your own account without outside help.
I'd say 80 percent of traders and investors lose money.
8 out of 10 of my readers never make their goals with trading. And the other 20%, if something happens to their career, team, resources, health or support.. They will suffer, and then a further fraction will fall by the way side. This is where we get the 90-95% of traders and investors “never making it” quote. I believe its because 80% don't make it right away, and then a further 80% of that (INITIALLY) successful 20%, also fall off.
Success isn't money: Its Power, Confidence and Understanding
Everyone is searching for these three things thru increasing their status. If you don't get it, look at it thru the lens of your kids. They don't get money but they keep trying to UNDERSTAND their school work, trying to be CONFIDENT among their peers and social circles, and they want POWER to change their future lives! Its the same with you and me, and all traders and investors. They think they need and want money. They don't. Its status, ladies and gentleman.
Let that sink in for you big wigs taking a gander at Advised. LOL
All traders are under alot of pressure to perform. They follow a pattern with continuous pressure from all sides. A
They follow a story that they live in, a story created from their tender years, and then later on, a story set for themselves when they have the freedom to think.
We all need to regrow. Consider your own story now against the theme of the hero, conflict, villain context. In theory, it should provide a clue to where we are in one of the below, next, three stages in our professional life, regardless if we are a full time trader or not, super pro, or not.
3 Stages of a Person and Their Outcomes (including companies and institutions) and the 4th Stage for the 1%
First Experiences, Assumptions and Defeats - The person is fighting for their identity, and their objectives to just get through another day. This could be when in your 20s or for some, never completely finding freedom, are completely stuck here forever. This stage can also bring success, just not the success we're looking for. Consider that some people, rich people, successful people, never had this stage or skipped it entirely, e.g. adulthood and success too fast. Prestige as a crutch for emotional and spiritual growth is a real thing and I believe can bring someone to their knees. Hopefully everyone here is past this. But it helps to know where you come from to know where you're going. You may have had big setbacks and life experiences so far in your life at this stage. It doesn't mean you have graduated to the next stage. It merely means you had trouble and success in life, but something is holding you back.
The “5 year, fully thinking and fully processing” Hurdle - Making it to this stage, the person resists temptation sufficiently to grow, and is still forming their identity. It is difficult to process daily life. Now that family and finances and other things are involved, the person cannot stop worrying and cannot grow at this stage. They are still too outside themselves and haven't had a chance to sit alone and still for at least 5 years to recollect what is happening in the world, to fully understand it. I'd say 68 percent of people we meet are still here, regardless of age. They just cant get to that “5 year, fully thinking and fully processing stage” due to constraints inside and/or outside their control. So… most give up at this stage. I hope you see how much value you have by reading the faces of those that have given up and feel powerless to change their lives.
Ease thru Gamification and Spiritual Conquest - The person is able to breathe, make decisions easily and is a great friend, lover, family member, society member, and is knowledgeable about what they believe in. They've completed hard things, got thru it, survived several times, and is now making their own way to SHARE with others, HELPING others, WANTING to care more. They have a model for several areas of life and frameworks to handle everyday conflicts. Their stress is low, and under control. They are free of medication, don't need much counseling, and can turn their thoughts to THEIR work. This person, “the 3 standard deviation person”, is ready for the rest of life's altruistic habits and tendencies. This person knows money is coming, and can challenge themselves to complete things, call in reinforcements if needed and is humble. Its not that they don't worry. They do. But they focus their energy positively. When they mess up, they regret it and don't hurt themselves more than a few minutes, with despair. They have themselves on full offer for others around them, and know their weaknesses. This is the type that has learned to fully grow through rebirth. This is the last step for 99 percent of people.
There is another. (Yoda reference!) They’re the 1% of performers with abilities such as:
work ethic in a smart and lucky way with great minds around
focused on projects that only complement themselves
understanding and using natural gifts early and often
complementing other 1% persons
magnifying and gamifying everything that works while letting everything else live freely, including relationships
complete clarity of purpose and schedules that challenge the person legitimately and purposefully, always staying on their toes
Id like to make this a gathering place for the 1% stated above!
What does this have to do with trading?
I'd say that we all have to get to the 3rd standard deviation type of person, the third level, in order to trade and invest actively and effectively for the long run.
Further, there doesn't seem to be another profession where the weaknesses associated with not being at the 3rd level will get someone in trouble. Perhaps, there are a few: police officer, clergy, teacher, etc. Notice they’re all vital professions and have extreme utility.
Nevertheless, Traders provide utility!
But they cant be effective until they get to the 3rd level. I see that there are many out there that are at level 1 and 2 and they think they’re gonna be successful with this work. hmmm…
Heres a good question for you to answer whether you are at level 3 and whether you feel ready to go to level 4: “Is the Dust settling on the usefulness of what you currently know?”
Great work getting this far into Advised #2
Lets move to the trade review section so you can see I know what the heck Im talking about!
This week's trading review will focus on:
The Epic Pre Pandemic Oil Short Setup Trade of October 2019
In my post for October 28th 2019 I described the upcoming short of oil that would take it below $50 and ultimately much farther below with the targets listed in the post.
At the time I didn't see anybody even seeing this trade… posting it or talking about it on TV.
I didn't need to know anything about fundamentals or even other technicalities. I didn't need to know about economic data or expert knowledge.
Crude fell very hard.
Read the post: it says… “Cycles Outlook… Oil has to get some buyers to get long into the trap that traders need for a huge short into next Summer (2021).
The perfect time/place for that is this last 40 week cycle of the 54 Month Cycle. If it is to happen, I need to look at January for a nice Short on a 10 week VTL.
From the $67 area, A short through the 40 week FLD shown below, will produce a target of at least $51, but that can overshoot easily to the downside.
The lower end target of $37 is within the confidence interval from the graphic at www.EIA.gov, shown above.
Target 1: $51
Target 2: $44
Target 3: $37
QUESTION: what controls the market? Cycles or News? 😀
#OIL trade post from October 2019, predicting major short 2020
And the result:
Pay attention to my above instructions that I gave out:
THE RED ARROW is when the alert was set; thinking of the peak of a major cycle was coming and cycles were getting bearish.
THE YELLOW ARROW is when the trade idea began; watch for the 10 week VTL (Valid Trend Line, not a regular trendline LOL, those dont work); (In this case its the blue FLD (Future Line of Demarcation, beyond the scope of this…) which offers the same confirmation of a peak in January) I couldn’t draw the VTL with my chart, but it would be almost identical in placement and trade date of 21 January 2021.
#OIL $/CL October thru pandemic lows daily chart
I think you should become an upgraded subscriber, NOW, so you dont miss out on these big trends.
Remember, my job is difficult.
It is to alert you to developing short to long term trends as your professional trading companion. If you are an RIA, Hedge, CFA or just a guy trading at home, I can help you for an introductory cost to an amazing program:
BECOME A LEGACY SUBSCRIBER and receive several bonuses, click subscribe, or, keep reading and Ill explain at the end.
More on that in a minute…
The $BABA Epic Short on China Woes and Cycle Failure August 2021
This trade is not easy for amateur cycles enthusiasts so watch out.
Like… you see, even I didn't know what was going to happen until it did…
As stated in the trading post on my blog:
“The effect of Chinese legislation has brought down ADRs… It could be more to fall (maybe 15% more) if anything fails, or we gap down…$BABA may choose a direction tomorrow. IF it is heavily bearish, it will fall right through the 20 day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation is an FLD, but its outside the scope of today’s message… but price falling thru it means a the 20 day cycle has probably peaked)”
Epic short in $BABA August 9 2021
That's the trade post. Is that clear? No, I know, you dont know anything about cycles, yet!
but consider this…
What was your CFA saying at the time? “BUYBUYBUY” LOL
What was your RIA saying? “Too much risk” LOL
Look at the chart, with the resulting down move. No-one was saying this stuff at the time. Now, look at the red arrow in the following chart.
$BABA daily chart showing red arrow for trade date august 2021
It fell through 20 day cycle support (Purple 20 day FLD) and It fell more than 15%. Exactly what I said it would do.
Did you see this at the time with such precision?
Probably not. LOL
This is what a 40 week trough cycle failure looks like, amigos/amigas.
This is how you trade stocks!
Become a Legacy Subscriber and start trading like this and MORE!
Thats trading… that is having 12 years doing this, that is what I will be doing until Im dead. Hopefully my 3 kids learn too!
Just like any method, you have to put in the work. Let me guide you, I know the pain of losses and suffering defeat. You're not alone. Support my work as a Legacy member and I will bring everything to the plate for you.
The Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) 20 Week Trough of October 2021
I seen what no-one seen again, just by having an accurate phasing analysis. A phasing analysis is how you count cycles accurately. It takes years of experience, good luck.
The trendline above price (red arrow) was a 20 day VTL (follows cyclical rules, not a regular trendline) that broke on volume and in the correct time window for a long.
I was waiting because I regularly keep a daily Bitcoin chart for my upgraded subscribers.
BTW a 20 week trough usually results in a big move for weeks, so after getting cyclical context and evidence, I was ready to go long the day it happened.
I was happy with that, so I posted it:
20 week trough in Bitcoin October 2021 post
And the result from the red arrow (the post date with the long):
$BTCUSD daily chart showing long opportunity and 40% up move
Sometimes I enter periods of paranoia, mistrust… even disbelief of reality. Life demonstrates that it feels quite long but actually in reality but a blip on the radar of time. Our short lives will be over very quickly but we will feel them as we suffer on completely. Let me ask you a question:
should each day get easier or harder?
Join me as we discover the market's true potential to reward our hard work and our precious time.
If all I did was deliver one trade idea per month like this… an EZ, done for you result like these trades shown… AND helped you understand Bitcoin cycles… wouldn’t that be worth the FREE SUB???
… who cares where you’ve been… just understand where you're going
I can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org