There is a probable likelihood of Trump cutting taxes and giving handouts to businesses and the ownership class. Risk on with a 0 to 20 strength of 20
Harris in all likelihood would drive up costs for businesses with higher taxes, higher production costs, higher inputs at home, etc. Risk on with a 0 to 20 strength of 10
Strength of future trough: if the 6 year cycle is in fact a cycle, as it has been recently 1 it will bottom in 2025. If it is going to be a true 9 year cycle2 it will probably bottom 2028.
If Trump wins there will be a faster down move into a trough in 2025 and a move out with pseudotrend never before seen as the market adjusts to this shock
If Harris wins there will be a trough after midterm elections in 2026, as the full 9 year predicted cycle plays out “business as usual”
AI will create pseudotrend regardless of winner, therefore bullish in 2025
Noone is selling, yet
This will be the most remarkable economic expansion in history
Human capital is diverted where it needs to be quickly
Resources are well defined globally
The players have taken the field for AI
10 corporations are the winner of the 35 year tech expansion cycle (peaking and troughing in 2016 or 20193) from 1987’s transition to electronic from 4industrials
Imagine the next 35 year cycle peak, now
Bitcoin trades 24 7 365 and therefore will be at least 20% faster in completion of its 35 year cycle: projecting it to next decade 2030s
TRADE IDEA: NVDA 0.00%↑ Nvidia Earnings in November
Buy ATM calls each week; 1%, 2%, 3%, 5% down moves in price on any resulting week leading to earnings day.
Sell when they cover the price of the option
Repeat
Set alerts for percentage down moves or use Python script in ChatGPT or whatever you have
OR
It can be easier to buy credit spreads into November on NVIDIA:
I think I have already touched on this in the past but as we start a new 80 day cycle, as it seems the time has come with this breakout on indexes this week.. things are off the rails and calls are usually bought during this time. However, it is prudent to use premium to your benefit in almost all occasions. Therefore, calendar spreads are good, verticals are good. Anything that is directional with protection is good. Anything with statistics buying at lows is good. Nothing fancy required.
Best regards to you all,
Derek Frazier
See Hickson 6 year cycle
See my career group on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/groups/14082793/
I think COVID19 shaped the world so much that EITHER: it was responsible for the peak in the previous 35 year wave leading to low prices in 2020 in SPY 0.00%↑ or maybe it could have been the test (Mar 2020 lows) of the previous PEAK of the previous 35 year wave that could have bottomed in 2016!
GAO/GGD-88-38